St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-10-02 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 4 St. Louis Blues

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 47.1%

STL: 52.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.07

STL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	DAL	STL
Season SV%	0.907	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	20	4	83.3%	3.67	6	-0.33
STL	Joel Hofer	25	25	0	100.0%	2.85	1	2.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs STL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-02	DAL 0 - 4 STL	STL	STL
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	STL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	0	0.73
1	STL	14	4	1.69
2	DAL	18	1	1.35
2	STL	5	0	0.25
3	DAL	12	0	0.77
3	STL	11	2	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown