Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-10-02 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 72.0%

ANA: 28.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.66

ANA: 2.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	VGK	ANA
Season SV%	0.883	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	20	16	4	80.0%	2.73	3	-1.27
ANA	Lukas Dostal	30	27	3	90.0%	3.37	2	0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • VGK at home vs ANA: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-02	VGK 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	VGK
2026-05-14	ANA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-05-12	VGK 3 - 2 ANA	VGK	VGK
2026-05-10	ANA 4 - 3 VGK	ANA	VGK
2026-05-08	ANA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	8	1	0.87
1	ANA	10	0	0.58
2	VGK	16	0	0.88
2	ANA	12	2	1.32
3	VGK	21	1	1.62
3	ANA	10	1	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown