Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 84.8%

CHI: 15.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 4.03

CHI: 1.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	BUF	CHI
Season SV%	0.903	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	15	12	3	80.0%	2.43	2	-0.57
CHI	Spencer Knight	28	24	4	85.7%	3.95	2	-0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • BUF at home vs CHI: 6-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	BUF 4 - 3 CHI	BUF	BUF
2026-04-13	CHI 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-21	BUF 9 - 3 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-27	BUF 6 - 2 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-10-19	CHI 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	24	2	2.04
1	CHI	10	0	0.61
2	BUF	15	0	0.85
2	CHI	6	1	0.85
3	BUF	12	0	1.06
3	CHI	14	1	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 84.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown