Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 57.8%

OTT: 42.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.89

OTT: 2.47

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

S. Bobrovsky

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	TOR	OTT
Season SV%	—	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	S. Bobrovsky	29	26	3	89.7%	4.77	6	1.77
OTT	Linus Ullmark	29	27	2	93.1%	3.15	2	1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • TOR at home vs OTT: 6-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	TOR 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	TOR
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	0.77
1	OTT	12	0	0.63
2	TOR	21	1	1.51
2	OTT	9	3	1.09
3	TOR	12	1	0.87
3	OTT	23	3	3.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown