Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals @ 7:00 PM EDT

Win Probability

TBL: 51.7%

WSH: 48.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 1.81

WSH: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 55%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	WSH
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

This game is scheduled for 2026-10-03 at 7:00 PM EDT.

Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.