Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 64.0%

WSH: 36.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.78

WSH: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	TBL	WSH
Season SV%	0.913	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	20	1	95.2%	2.46	1	1.46
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	30	27	3	90.0%	4.05	2	1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • TBL at home vs WSH: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	TBL 3 - 1 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	20	0	1.62
1	WSH	9	0	0.42
2	TBL	14	0	0.86
2	WSH	15	0	0.61
3	TBL	14	2	1.57
3	WSH	17	1	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown