Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 50.6%

CAR: 49.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.87

CAR: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

J. Woll

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	PHI	CAR
Season SV%	—	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	J. Woll	40	37	3	92.5%	4.20	3	1.20
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	18	16	2	88.9%	2.51	2	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PHI at home vs CAR: 1-13

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-11	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-10-03	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	0	0.75
1	CAR	18	0	0.82
2	PHI	7	0	0.40
2	CAR	28	3	2.43
3	PHI	10	1	0.99
3	CAR	14	0	0.78
4	PHI	2	1	0.36
4	CAR	2	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8