Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 73.0%

MTL: 27.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.73

MTL: 2.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	PIT	MTL
Season SV%	0.886	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	25	20	5	80.0%	2.86	1	-2.14
MTL	Jakub Dobes	30	24	6	80.0%	3.12	2	-2.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • PIT at home vs MTL: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-31	MTL 5 - 4 PIT	MTL	PIT
2026-10-03	PIT 6 - 5 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	1	0.83
1	MTL	13	1	0.87
2	PIT	16	0	1.07
2	MTL	10	0	0.73
3	PIT	10	1	1.12
3	MTL	22	0	1.13
4	PIT	1	0	0.11
4	MTL	2	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.7 - 2.3