Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 1 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 47.4%

SEA: 52.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.37

SEA: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 55%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

D. Levi

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	EDM	SEA
Season SV%	—	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	D. Levi	20	19	1	95.0%	1.56	0	0.56
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	25	22	3	88.0%	3.36	2	0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • EDM at home vs SEA: 9-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	EDM 3 - 1 SEA	EDM	SEA
2026-03-31	EDM 3 - 0 SEA	EDM	EDM
2025-12-04	EDM 9 - 4 SEA	EDM	EDM
2025-11-29	SEA 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-25	SEA 3 - 2 EDM	SEA	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	0	1.30
1	SEA	6	0	0.15
2	EDM	9	0	0.32
2	SEA	17	0	1.09
3	EDM	17	2	1.75
3	SEA	5	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown