New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 6 - 0 New Jersey Devils

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 52.6%

NJD: 47.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.93

NJD: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

Stat	NYI	NJD
Season SV%	0.910	0.939
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	1.60

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	37	37	0	100.0%	3.69	4	3.69
NJD	Nico Daws	32	26	6	81.2%	3.55	4	-2.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • NYI at home vs NJD: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	NYI 6 - 0 NJD	NYI	NYI
2026-02-05	NJD 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NJD
2026-01-06	NYI 9 - 0 NJD	NYI	NYI
2025-12-23	NYI 2 - 1 NJD	NYI	NYI
2025-11-10	NJD 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	0.88
1	NJD	9	0	0.39
2	NYI	15	3	1.49
2	NJD	28	2	1.96
3	NYI	13	1	1.17
3	NJD	20	2	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown