Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 54.1%

DAL: 45.9%

Expected Goals

NSH: 2.44

DAL: 2.24

Total Goals

Median: 4.7

Over 5.5: 47%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	NSH	DAL
Season SV%	0.897	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.93	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	30	29	1	96.7%	2.26	1	1.26
DAL	Casey DeSmith	26	24	2	92.3%	2.27	0	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • NSH at home vs DAL: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	NSH 2 - 1 DAL	NSH	NSH
2026-02-28	DAL 3 - 2 NSH	DAL	DAL
2025-11-08	NSH 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-26	NSH 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	NSH
2025-04-16	NSH 5 - 1 DAL	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	16	0	1.37
1	DAL	13	0	0.61
2	NSH	12	0	0.54
2	DAL	13	1	0.87
3	NSH	11	0	0.36
3	DAL	21	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 4.7

Score Breakdown