St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 1 St. Louis Blues

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 73.0%

STL: 27.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.36

STL: 2.04

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	COL	STL
Season SV%	0.924	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	26	25	1	96.2%	1.82	0	0.82
STL	Jordan Binnington	36	30	6	83.3%	3.44	2	-2.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs STL: 7-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	22	1	1.53
1	STL	8	0	0.43
2	COL	12	1	0.92
2	STL	16	0	0.50
3	COL	15	0	0.98
3	STL	14	0	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown