Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 58.7%

CGY: 41.3%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.54

CGY: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

L. Meriläinen

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	VAN	CGY
Season SV%	—	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	L. Meriläinen	24	23	1	95.8%	1.80	1	0.80
CGY	Devin Cooley	26	22	4	84.6%	3.58	2	-0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • VAN at home vs CGY: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	VAN 4 - 1 CGY	VAN	VAN
2026-03-28	CGY 7 - 3 VAN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-23	VAN 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	VAN
2025-10-09	VAN 5 - 1 CGY	VAN	VAN
2025-03-12	CGY 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	0	0.65
1	CGY	16	0	0.76
2	VAN	13	0	0.98
2	CGY	14	1	0.63
3	VAN	16	2	1.96
3	CGY	11	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown