Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-10-03 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 5 - 4 Los Angeles Kings (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 46.5%

LAK: 53.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.70

LAK: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 35%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

Stat	SJS	LAK
Season SV%	0.896	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.70

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	35	31	4	88.6%	3.86	3	-0.14
LAK	Anton Forsberg	25	20	5	80.0%	1.80	1	-3.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • SJS at home vs LAK: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-04	LAK 7 - 2 SJS	LAK	LAK
2026-10-03	SJS 5 - 4 LAK	SJS	LAK
2026-01-07	LAK 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	LAK
2025-11-20	SJS 4 - 3 LAK	SJS	SJS
2025-10-28	SJS 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	10	0	0.28
1	LAK	14	0	0.78
2	SJS	13	1	0.83
2	LAK	18	2	1.46
3	SJS	10	0	0.57
3	LAK	24	1	1.50
4	SJS	2	0	0.12
4	LAK	2	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 5 - 4 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 2.7 - 2.9