Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-10-04 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 66.2%

WPG: 33.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.17

WPG: 2.27

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

WPG

S. Skinner

Stat	DET	WPG
Season SV%	0.893	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	27	24	3	88.9%	2.90	1	-0.10
WPG	S. Skinner	35	33	2	94.3%	4.53	4	2.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • DET at home vs WPG: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-04	DET 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	DET
2026-01-24	WPG 1 - 5 DET	DET	WPG
2025-12-31	DET 2 - 1 WPG	DET	DET
2025-01-04	WPG 2 - 4 DET	DET	WPG
2024-10-30	DET 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	21	1	1.32
1	WPG	16	0	1.06
2	DET	21	2	1.71
2	WPG	13	0	0.96
3	DET	16	1	1.50
3	WPG	12	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown