Utah Mammoth at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-10-04 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 2 Utah Mammoth

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 58.7%

UTA: 41.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.17

UTA: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	NYR	UTA
Season SV%	0.910	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	30	28	2	93.3%	4.00	2	2.00
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	22	18	4	81.8%	3.63	4	-0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • NYR at home vs UTA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-04	NYR 4 - 2 UTA	NYR	NYR
2026-01-05	NYR 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-11-22	UTA 3 - 2 NYR	UTA	UTA
2025-01-16	UTA 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	UTA
2024-10-12	NYR 5 - 6 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	2	0.93
1	UTA	10	0	0.78
2	NYR	14	0	1.07
2	UTA	14	2	1.78
3	NYR	10	2	1.63
3	UTA	19	0	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown