Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-10-04 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Florida Panthers (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 54.6%

FLA: 45.4%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.17

FLA: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

FLA

J. Markstrom

Stat	ANA	FLA
Season SV%	0.888	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	31	29	2	93.5%	3.66	3	1.66
FLA	J. Markstrom	21	18	3	85.7%	2.29	1	-0.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • ANA at home vs FLA: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-04	ANA 3 - 2 FLA	ANA	ANA
2025-11-04	ANA 7 - 3 FLA	ANA	FLA
2025-10-28	FLA 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	FLA
2025-01-21	ANA 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-01-18	FLA 3 - 0 ANA	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	8	0	0.61
1	FLA	19	2	1.52
2	ANA	10	0	0.69
2	FLA	13	0	1.01
3	ANA	7	0	0.20
3	FLA	14	1	0.83
4	ANA	6	1	0.79
4	FLA	5	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9