Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-10-04 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 6 - 1 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 64.5%

CGY: 35.5%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.64

CGY: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	SEA	CGY
Season SV%	0.903	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.77	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Joey Daccord	33	32	1	97.0%	3.01	1	2.01
CGY	Dustin Wolf	27	21	6	77.8%	2.47	0	-3.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • SEA at home vs CGY: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-04	SEA 2 - 1 CGY	SEA	CGY
2026-10-30	CGY 6 - 2 SEA	CGY	CGY
2026-10-04	SEA 6 - 1 CGY	SEA	SEA
2026-10-01	CGY 1 - 6 SEA	SEA	SEA
2026-04-11	SEA 4 - 1 CGY	SEA	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	14	0	0.79
1	CGY	16	0	0.74
2	SEA	16	0	0.87
2	CGY	20	0	1.01
3	SEA	15	0	0.80
3	CGY	20	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown