Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-10-04 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 46.1%

VGK: 53.9%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.94

VGK: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	VAN	VGK
Season SV%	0.885	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	28	25	3	89.3%	4.42	6	1.42
VGK	Adin Hill	19	17	2	89.5%	1.56	1	-0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • VAN at home vs VGK: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-04	VAN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-07	VAN 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-30	VGK 4 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2026-02-04	VGK 5 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2025-04-16	VAN 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	9	1	0.67
1	VGK	17	3	1.74
2	VAN	9	0	0.47
2	VGK	18	2	1.93
3	VAN	10	0	0.41
3	VGK	5	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown