Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-10-05 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers @ 7:00 PM EDT
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 50.6%
PHI: 49.4%
Expected Goals
TBL: 1.61
PHI: 4.01
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | TBL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.914 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.950 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | PHI 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-10 | PHI 2 - 7 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-24 | TBL 3 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-17 | TBL 2 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-13 | PHI 4 - 3 TBL | PHI | PHI |
🔮 Game Preview
This game is scheduled for 2026-10-05 at 7:00 PM EDT.
Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.
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