Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-10-05 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 78.6%

PHI: 21.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.13

PHI: 2.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	TBL	PHI
Season SV%	0.913	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	15	14	1	93.3%	1.66	0	0.66
PHI	Dan Vladar	36	32	4	88.9%	5.35	4	1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • TBL at home vs PHI: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-05	TBL 4 - 1 PHI	TBL	TBL
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	0	1.63
1	PHI	4	0	0.33
2	TBL	13	1	1.13
2	PHI	14	0	0.86
3	TBL	19	3	2.58
3	PHI	7	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown