Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-10-05 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 53.2%

OTT: 46.8%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.17

OTT: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	BOS	OTT
Season SV%	0.903	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	24	20	4	83.3%	2.37	2	-1.63
OTT	Linus Ullmark	19	18	1	94.7%	2.28	0	1.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs OTT: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-05	BOS 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	BOS
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	7	0	0.61
1	OTT	13	0	0.91
2	BOS	11	0	0.88
2	OTT	9	2	1.09
3	BOS	15	0	0.78
3	OTT	15	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown