Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-10-05 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (76% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 75.6%

WPG: 24.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.89

WPG: 2.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Sergei Murashov - 1-1-0 | 0.932 SV% | 1.53 GAA

WPG

C. Stevenson

Stat	PIT	WPG
Season SV%	0.932	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	1.53	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Sergei Murashov	35	32	3	91.4%	3.63	3	0.63
WPG	C. Stevenson	31	29	2	93.5%	3.30	1	1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • PIT at home vs WPG: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-05	PIT 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	PIT
2026-03-21	PIT 5 - 4 WPG	PIT	PIT
2025-11-01	WPG 5 - 2 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-11-22	PIT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PIT
2024-10-20	WPG 6 - 3 PIT	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	14	0	0.75
1	WPG	16	1	1.08
2	PIT	18	1	1.70
2	WPG	12	0	0.73
3	PIT	15	0	0.84
3	WPG	20	2	1.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 75.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown