Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-10-06 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Nashville Predators (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 57.9%

NSH: 42.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.32

NSH: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	TOR	NSH
Season SV%	0.884	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	25	21	4	84.0%	3.75	5	-0.25
NSH	Juuse Saros	37	32	5	86.5%	3.84	1	-1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs NSH: 6-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	TOR 5 - 4 NSH	TOR	TOR
2025-12-20	NSH 5 - 3 TOR	NSH	NSH
2025-10-14	TOR 7 - 4 NSH	TOR	TOR
2025-03-22	NSH 5 - 2 TOR	NSH	NSH
2024-12-04	TOR 3 - 2 NSH	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.91
1	NSH	21	3	2.57
2	TOR	18	1	1.33
2	NSH	8	2	0.77
3	TOR	17	0	0.96
3	NSH	9	0	0.29
4	TOR	7	0	0.64
4	NSH	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9