Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-10-06 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 6 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 50.0%

CAR: 50.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.03

CAR: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	MTL	CAR
Season SV%	0.889	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	34	28	6	82.4%	5.11	6	-0.89
CAR	Brandon Bussi	20	16	4	80.0%	2.13	3	-1.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • MTL at home vs CAR: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	MTL 4 - 6 CAR	CAR	MTL
2026-05-29	CAR 6 - 1 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-27	MTL 0 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-25	MTL 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-23	CAR 3 - 2 MTL	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	7	1	0.59
1	CAR	17	2	1.57
2	MTL	7	0	0.32
2	CAR	22	2	1.63
3	MTL	15	2	1.23
3	CAR	10	2	1.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown