Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-10-06 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 3 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 77.9%

OTT: 22.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.86

OTT: 2.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

OTT

S. Ersson

Stat	DET	OTT
Season SV%	0.893	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	25	22	3	88.0%	2.59	0	-0.41
OTT	S. Ersson	36	31	5	86.1%	3.65	2	-1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • DET at home vs OTT: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	DET 5 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	1	1.21
1	OTT	5	0	0.40
2	DET	15	0	1.30
2	OTT	17	0	0.94
3	DET	14	1	1.15
3	OTT	13	0	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown