Utah Mammoth at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-10-06 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 Utah Mammoth

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 62.2%

UTA: 37.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.76

UTA: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 57%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	NJD	UTA
Season SV%	0.912	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	31	26	5	83.9%	4.21	3	-0.79
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	33	30	3	90.9%	2.91	1	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • NJD at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	NJD 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	NJD
2026-01-03	NJD 4 - 1 UTA	NJD	UTA
2025-12-19	UTA 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	UTA
2025-03-01	UTA 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	UTA
2024-10-14	NJD 3 - 0 UTA	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	12	0	0.94
1	UTA	11	1	1.13
2	NJD	15	0	0.85
2	UTA	18	2	1.86
3	NJD	17	1	1.12
3	UTA	17	0	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown