New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-10-06 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 2 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 54.4%

NYI: 45.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.25

NYI: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	NYR	NYI
Season SV%	0.910	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	19	17	2	89.5%	2.23	0	0.23
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	24	19	5	79.2%	4.71	6	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • NYR at home vs NYI: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	NYR 5 - 2 NYI	NYR	NYR
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	10	1	1.05
1	NYI	16	0	1.24
2	NYR	15	2	1.36
2	NYI	8	0	0.78
3	NYR	15	3	2.30
3	NYI	7	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown