Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-10-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Minnesota Wild (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 64.3%

MIN: 35.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.36

MIN: 2.53

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	BUF	MIN
Season SV%	0.895	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Colten Ellis	20	18	2	90.0%	1.82	0	-0.18
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	28	25	3	89.3%	3.76	2	0.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs MIN: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	BUF 3 - 2 MIN	BUF	BUF
2026-01-17	BUF 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	BUF
2025-11-29	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	MIN
2025-03-22	MIN 4 - 1 BUF	MIN	BUF
2024-11-27	BUF 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	10	0	0.53
1	MIN	7	0	0.48
2	BUF	13	1	1.02
2	MIN	10	0	0.79
3	BUF	17	0	1.47
3	MIN	10	0	0.25
4	BUF	6	1	0.74
4	MIN	3	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.4 - 2.5