Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-10-07 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 41.0%

PIT: 59.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.95

PIT: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	WSH	PIT
Season SV%	0.913	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	30	27	3	90.0%	3.59	3	0.59
PIT	Arturs Silovs	27	22	5	81.5%	3.63	1	-1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs PIT: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-07	WSH 5 - 3 PIT	WSH	PIT
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	24	0	2.17
1	PIT	6	0	0.24
2	WSH	10	1	0.86
2	PIT	19	2	1.86
3	WSH	11	0	0.60
3	PIT	17	1	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown