Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-10-07 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 42.0%

COL: 58.0%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.94

COL: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

S. Skinner

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	WPG	COL
Season SV%	—	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	S. Skinner	34	32	2	94.1%	2.99	1	0.99
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	19	16	3	84.2%	1.98	1	-1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WPG at home vs COL: 8-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-07	WPG 3 - 2 COL	WPG	COL
2026-03-28	COL 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	COL
2026-03-26	WPG 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-14	WPG 3 - 1 COL	WPG	COL
2025-12-19	COL 3 - 2 WPG	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	10	0	0.37
1	COL	24	0	1.12
2	WPG	17	1	0.88
2	COL	16	0	1.12
3	WPG	9	0	0.73
3	COL	16	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown