Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-10-08 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 51.5%

DAL: 48.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.25

DAL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	BUF	DAL
Season SV%	0.903	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	18	14	4	77.8%	2.12	2	-1.88
DAL	Jake Oettinger	26	26	0	100.0%	2.76	1	2.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • BUF at home vs DAL: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	BUF 0 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	9	0	0.53
1	DAL	13	1	0.72
2	BUF	13	0	0.84
2	DAL	11	1	1.11
3	BUF	22	1	1.39
3	DAL	6	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown