Nashville Predators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-10-08 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 52.3%

NSH: 47.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.16

NSH: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	MTL	NSH
Season SV%	0.904	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	20	15	5	75.0%	3.49	3	-1.51
NSH	Juuse Saros	34	32	2	94.1%	3.62	4	1.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • MTL at home vs NSH: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	MTL 2 - 5 NSH	NSH	MTL
2026-03-28	NSH 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NSH
2025-10-16	MTL 3 - 2 NSH	MTL	MTL
2025-04-06	NSH 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	NSH
2024-12-05	MTL 3 - 0 NSH	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	19	0	1.23
1	NSH	10	0	0.47
2	MTL	19	2	1.28
2	NSH	12	1	1.03
3	MTL	12	2	1.11
3	NSH	13	2	1.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown