Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-10-08 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 69.8%

PHI: 30.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.79

PHI: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

PHI

J. Woll

Stat	OTT	PHI
Season SV%	0.881	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	29	28	1	96.6%	3.71	3	2.71
PHI	J. Woll	26	24	2	92.3%	2.33	0	0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • OTT at home vs PHI: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	PHI 3 - 1 OTT	PHI	PHI
2026-10-08	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	10	0	0.87
1	PHI	14	1	0.87
2	OTT	13	0	0.66
2	PHI	15	1	1.97
3	OTT	13	0	0.79
3	PHI	12	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown