Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-10-08 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Minnesota Wild

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 83.0%

MIN: 17.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.76

MIN: 1.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

D. Hildeby

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	TBL	MIN
Season SV%	—	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	D. Hildeby	36	34	2	94.4%	3.03	3	1.03
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	35	32	3	91.4%	3.18	0	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs MIN: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	TBL 3 - 2 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	0	1.28
1	MIN	11	1	0.68
2	TBL	14	0	0.97
2	MIN	20	1	1.29
3	TBL	15	0	0.93
3	MIN	16	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 83.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown