Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-10-08 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 77.0%

CHI: 23.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 4.01

CHI: 2.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	NYI	CHI
Season SV%	0.910	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	23	22	1	95.7%	2.31	0	1.31
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	19	15	4	78.9%	2.85	2	-1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYI at home vs CHI: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	NYI 4 - 1 CHI	NYI	NYI
2026-03-24	NYI 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	NYI
2025-12-30	CHI 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2024-12-15	CHI 5 - 3 NYI	CHI	NYI
2024-12-12	NYI 5 - 4 CHI	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	8	0	0.95
1	CHI	11	0	0.68
2	NYI	10	1	0.84
2	CHI	12	0	0.79
3	NYI	9	1	1.07
3	CHI	12	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown