San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-10-08 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 59.5%

SJS: 40.5%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.35

SJS: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	STL	SJS
Season SV%	0.901	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	27	24	3	88.9%	2.34	1	-0.66
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	26	24	2	92.3%	3.22	2	1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • STL at home vs SJS: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	STL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	STL
2026-03-30	SJS 5 - 4 STL	SJS	STL
2026-03-26	STL 2 - 1 SJS	STL	STL
2026-03-06	SJS 2 - 3 STL	STL	SJS
2024-12-12	STL 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	15	2	1.39
1	SJS	8	0	0.38
2	STL	16	0	1.38
2	SJS	17	0	0.94
3	STL	8	0	0.42
3	SJS	12	1	0.91
4	STL	1	0	0.04
4	SJS	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8