Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-10-08 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 7 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 41.6%

COL: 58.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.73

COL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	CGY	COL
Season SV%	0.914	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	30	23	7	76.7%	2.82	2	-4.18
COL	Scott Wedgewood	29	26	3	89.7%	2.70	2	-0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 88% • CGY at home vs COL: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-31	COL 5 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2026-10-08	CGY 3 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.84
1	COL	9	1	0.75
2	CGY	17	2	1.31
2	COL	20	1	1.08
3	CGY	14	0	0.56
3	COL	17	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown