Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-10-09 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 64.4%

SEA: 35.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.37

SEA: 2.53

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	DET	SEA
Season SV%	0.893	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	24	18	6	75.0%	3.60	3	-2.40
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	40	37	3	92.5%	3.95	1	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs SEA: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-20	SEA 4 - 3 DET	SEA	DET
2026-10-09	DET 3 - 6 SEA	SEA	DET
2025-12-06	SEA 3 - 4 DET	DET	DET
2025-11-18	DET 4 - 2 SEA	DET	DET
2025-02-04	SEA 4 - 5 DET	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	24	0	1.61
1	SEA	12	2	1.54
2	DET	18	0	1.16
2	SEA	14	1	0.85
3	DET	16	1	1.18
3	SEA	14	0	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown