Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-10-09 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 54.7%

PIT: 45.3%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.05

PIT: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

C. Talbot

PIT

Sergei Murashov - 1-1-0 | 0.932 SV% | 1.53 GAA

Stat	CBJ	PIT
Season SV%	—	0.932
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	1.53

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	C. Talbot	24	22	2	91.7%	3.07	3	1.07
PIT	Sergei Murashov	48	45	3	93.8%	5.66	5	2.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • CBJ at home vs PIT: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-09	CBJ 3 - 2 PIT	CBJ	CBJ
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	CBJ
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	13	0	0.88
1	PIT	5	0	0.12
2	CBJ	32	3	2.66
2	PIT	7	1	1.10
3	CBJ	13	1	0.78
3	PIT	18	1	1.03
4	CBJ	4	0	0.47
4	PIT	5	1	0.54
5	CBJ	3	1	0.88
5	PIT	3	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8