Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-10-10 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 74.8%

PHI: 25.2%

Expected Goals

BOS: 4.01

PHI: 2.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	BOS	PHI
Season SV%	0.903	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	15	14	1	93.3%	1.18	0	0.18
PHI	Dan Vladar	32	27	5	84.4%	3.19	1	-1.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • BOS at home vs PHI: 7-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	BOS 5 - 1 PHI	BOS	BOS
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	15	0	1.06
1	PHI	7	0	0.44
2	BOS	15	0	0.78
2	PHI	10	0	0.35
3	BOS	16	1	1.35
3	PHI	11	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown