Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-10-10 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 33.3%

EDM: 66.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.74

EDM: 3.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	SJS	EDM
Season SV%	0.896	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	20	17	3	85.0%	3.84	4	0.84
EDM	Tristan Jarry	20	19	1	95.0%	1.55	1	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • SJS at home vs EDM: 2-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	SJS 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-04-08	SJS 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	SJS
2026-03-17	EDM 5 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2026-02-28	SJS 5 - 4 EDM	SJS	EDM
2026-01-29	EDM 4 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	8	0	0.20
1	EDM	10	0	0.54
2	SJS	13	0	0.40
2	EDM	7	0	0.23
3	SJS	12	1	0.95
3	EDM	20	4	3.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown