Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2026-10-10 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (79% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 79.2%

MIN: 20.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.64

MIN: 1.88

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

J. Markstrom

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	FLA	MIN
Season SV%	—	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	J. Markstrom	29	25	4	86.2%	5.24	5	1.24
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	30	29	1	96.7%	3.09	0	2.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • FLA at home vs MIN: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	FLA 1 - 4 MIN	MIN	FLA
2026-03-26	FLA 2 - 3 MIN	MIN	FLA
2026-01-24	MIN 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-12-18	MIN 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-10-22	FLA 1 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	13	0	0.61
1	MIN	17	1	0.75
2	FLA	14	0	0.99
2	MIN	15	0	0.93
3	FLA	18	0	1.49
3	MIN	20	4	3.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 79.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown