Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-10-10 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 4 Utah Mammoth

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 55.7%

UTA: 44.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.20

UTA: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	BUF	UTA
Season SV%	0.895	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Colten Ellis	30	26	4	86.7%	4.61	2	0.61
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	24	23	1	95.8%	2.82	3	1.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • BUF at home vs UTA: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	BUF 1 - 4 UTA	UTA	BUF
2025-11-12	UTA 5 - 2 BUF	UTA	UTA
2025-11-04	BUF 1 - 2 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-03-20	UTA 5 - 2 BUF	UTA	UTA
2024-12-07	BUF 2 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.37
1	UTA	20	1	1.97
2	BUF	6	1	0.65
2	UTA	21	0	1.29
3	BUF	20	2	1.79
3	UTA	15	1	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown