Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-10-10 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 0 Detroit Red Wings (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 65.4%

DET: 34.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.43

DET: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

DET

D. Tarasov

Stat	MTL	DET
Season SV%	0.904	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	36	36	0	100.0%	3.57	1	3.57
DET	D. Tarasov	34	33	1	97.1%	3.96	1	2.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • MTL at home vs DET: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	MTL 1 - 0 DET	MTL	MTL
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	1	1.02
1	DET	12	0	0.82
2	MTL	19	0	1.14
2	DET	12	1	1.41
3	MTL	11	0	0.81
3	DET	10	0	0.51
4	MTL	6	0	0.43
4	DET	6	0	0.36
5	MTL	6	0	0.57
5	DET	6	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 0 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.5