Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-10-10 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 1 Dallas Stars (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 53.0%

DAL: 47.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.35

DAL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	PIT	DAL
Season SV%	0.886	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	28	25	3	89.3%	4.11	2	1.11
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	20	4	83.3%	5.31	4	1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • PIT at home vs DAL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	PIT 2 - 1 DAL	PIT	PIT
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	PIT
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.74
1	DAL	8	0	0.55
2	PIT	18	1	1.22
2	DAL	11	0	0.55
3	PIT	10	0	0.50
3	DAL	16	0	1.29
4	PIT	4	0	0.24
4	DAL	2	0	0.08
5	PIT	4	3	2.62
5	DAL	4	2	1.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2