Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-10-10 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 59.0%

TOR: 41.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.66

TOR: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

TOR

S. Bobrovsky

Stat	COL	TOR
Season SV%	0.924	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	23	17	6	73.9%	3.09	4	-2.91
TOR	S. Bobrovsky	33	30	3	90.9%	4.14	3	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • COL at home vs TOR: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	COL 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	COL
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	COL
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	17	0	0.95
1	TOR	12	1	0.92
2	COL	18	3	1.73
2	TOR	8	1	0.64
3	COL	17	0	1.45
3	TOR	13	2	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown