Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-10-10 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 46.1%

TBL: 53.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.70

TBL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	NYI	TBL
Season SV%	0.910	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	26	21	5	80.8%	2.73	4	-2.27
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	20	3	87.0%	2.51	2	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • NYI at home vs TBL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	NYI 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	6	0	0.40
1	TBL	11	0	0.53
2	NYI	12	2	1.61
2	TBL	9	3	1.31
3	NYI	13	0	0.49
3	TBL	12	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown