Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-10-10 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 61.9%

ANA: 38.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.31

ANA: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

ANA

Ville Husso - 5-3-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.25 GAA

Stat	CGY	ANA
Season SV%	0.901	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.25

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	24	4	85.7%	3.36	2	-0.64
ANA	Ville Husso	29	27	2	93.1%	3.22	3	1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • CGY at home vs ANA: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-06	CGY 3 - 5 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-10-13	ANA 2 - 4 CGY	CGY	ANA
2026-10-10	CGY 2 - 4 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	12	1	1.02
1	ANA	16	0	0.86
2	CGY	18	0	0.99
2	ANA	13	0	0.74
3	CGY	14	2	1.20
3	ANA	11	2	1.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown