Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-10-10 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 1 Los Angeles Kings (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 63.7%

LAK: 36.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.73

LAK: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	VGK	LAK
Season SV%	0.883	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	27	26	1	96.3%	1.76	0	0.76
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	32	30	2	93.8%	2.51	1	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • VGK at home vs LAK: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	VGK 2 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-02-25	LAK 4 - 6 VGK	VGK	LAK
2026-02-05	VGK 4 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-14	LAK 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	LAK
2025-10-08	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	0	0.62
1	LAK	16	0	0.77
2	VGK	21	1	1.37
2	LAK	6	0	0.25
3	VGK	11	0	0.41
3	LAK	17	0	0.51
4	VGK	1	0	0.10
4	LAK	3	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9