Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-10-11 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 5 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 59.4%

SEA: 40.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.61

SEA: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Stat	WSH	SEA
Season SV%	0.913	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.77

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	27	22	5	81.5%	4.79	6	-0.21
SEA	Joey Daccord	36	33	3	91.7%	3.55	3	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WSH at home vs SEA: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-11	WSH 3 - 5 SEA	SEA	WSH
2026-01-27	SEA 5 - 1 WSH	SEA	SEA
2025-10-21	WSH 4 - 1 SEA	WSH	WSH
2025-03-09	WSH 4 - 2 SEA	WSH	WSH
2025-01-23	SEA 0 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	1	1.10
1	SEA	15	2	1.48
2	WSH	15	0	0.75
2	SEA	16	1	0.95
3	WSH	21	2	1.69
3	SEA	12	3	2.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown