Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-10-11 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 22.1%

CAR: 77.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.18

CAR: 3.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

J. Woll

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	PHI	CAR
Season SV%	—	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	J. Woll	30	26	4	86.7%	3.23	2	-0.77
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	19	18	1	94.7%	1.61	1	0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PHI at home vs CAR: 1-13

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-11	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-10-03	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	9	0	0.35
1	CAR	17	1	1.16
2	PHI	13	1	0.53
2	CAR	14	0	0.81
3	PHI	12	0	0.72
3	CAR	13	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown